Paramount and Miramax’s revival of Scary Movie from the Wayans Brothers looks to be the ‘it’ pic this weekend, in what’s a very positive sign for comedy on the big screen with a $40 million stateside and $70M outlook.
For a pure comedy to open to $40M, that’s like, wow, the biggest since God knows when. You can’t count Marvel Studios/Disney’s Deadpool & Wolverine even though that’s a comedy at $211.4M as that gets by on being a superhero movie. Ditto for Barbie at $162M, that’s based on a world famous doll who finally got her shot in the movies.
While moviegoers are intoxicated by the latest digital and YouTube craze, A24’s Backrooms, that movie is is expected to hold between -55% to -60% for a second weekend domestic take between $32M-$37M. If it’s on the high end of that, or even more, it’s because Boomers and Gen X are giving the first person voyeur Chiwetel Ejiofor and Renate Reinsve a shot. That should be enough to land the Kate Parson under $10M costing feature at second place ahead of Amazon MGM Studios’ $170M reboot of Mattel and Escape Artists’ Masters of the Universe which is spotting $30M domestic at 3,500 locations, and $50M+ around the world. Masters of the Universe has conquered its way into some Imax auditoriums even though Disney’s Mandalorian and Grogu still has them. He-Man and the Wayans Brothers comedy will be sharing PLFs.
But there’s more Gen Z and YouTube craze happening on the marque: Fathom Entertainment is launching at 2,221, Glitch Productions’ The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act. Get this: forecasts for this pic based on the 2022 Australian adult animated series are between $15M-$18M stateside. Amazing Digital Circus follows a group of humans trapped inside a circus-themed virtual reality simulation, where they struggle with an erratic AI and personal traumas. The series went viral following its 2022 launch and by the end of 2024, YouTube videos relating to Amazing Digital Circus clocked a reported 25 billion views. The series then became available to stream a year later on Netflix and became one of the top five most viewed Netflix shows worldwide in its first two weeks of October 2024. The Last Act is the long awaited conclusion to The Amazing Digital Circus series. Showtimes start Thursday at 10am including Regal 4DX. First choice is best with — you got it, men and women under 25.
Meanwhile, the over indexing of Scary Movie hinges on walk-up business in what’s expected to pull in a very diverse audience including Black and Latino-Hispanic moviegoers as well as a three-demo first choice strong women under/over 25 and men over 25 at 3,400 theaters. Previews in North America start Thursday at 2PM. This is the sixth Scary Movie movie. 2003’s Scary Movie 3 posted the highest North American opening in the series at $49.7M. The five films have racked up a total of $896.3M worldwide, with three of them opening to at least $40M stateside. It’s quite conceivable the latest addition will take the 26-year old series past the $1 billion global mark. The movie was financed for $30M assembled by the Jonathan Glickman led Miramax who got the Wayans back together behind and in front of the camera. No audience or critical scores for Scary Movie yet on Rotten Tomatoes. The Hollywood premiere is tonight.
The Michael Tiddes directed feature is going in 53 offshore markets including Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom this weekend with an eye at $25M-$30M. The like-for-like here is Scream 7 which opened to $33.1M abroad. Given the movie’s blatant satire of recent horror movies, it’s expected to do well beyond just English speaking including Germany and Latin America.
No surprise to see that first choice for Masters of the Universe is best with guys over 25, as the franchise had its heyday in the 1980s with men now over 40. The hope and play for this is to bring in families. Critics didn’t shrug the Travis Knight directed movie at 74% certified fresh. The pic stars Red, White & Royal Blue hottie Nicholas Galitzine, Camila Mendes, Idris Elba, Alison Brie and a very hidden Jared Leto as Skeletor. He-Man and friends are going in 86 territories this week including the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, China, and Australia with an eye at $20M abroad. Brazil loves the toys and the franchise, so look for Teela and He-Man to do the Bossa nova there; Galitzine and Knight recently did a tour there last week. Germany could also standout. Stateside previews are today at 7PM in key large format locations with full on previews beginning Thursday at 2PM.
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