So here was my headline last Friday for Part 1of my Emmy Awards predictions covering select categories among the 102 given out this past weekend: “Pete Hammond’s Emmy Predictions, Part 1: Are ‘DTF St Louis’, Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Jimmy Kimmel, Rob Reiner & More Heading For Early Wins This Weekend?” Except for poor Taylor, who had a rare losing night, all of the above hit the winners’ circle as I predicted — so not bad if I say so myself.

Now we move on to the final 19 categories of Monday’s Primetime Emmy Awards with a lot more information that I had last week making those initial predictions. On paper, at least, it seems like a no-brainer. Widow’s Bay, The Pitt, DTF: St Louis and Stephen Colbert loom as the big winners. To bet against them a fool’s folly, right? Well, maybe, but Emmy isn’t always predictable, at least not that predictable, and the two-day ceremonies once known as the Creative Arts can be a bit of a tease.

So let’s dive in and see which way I think it will go.

The really impressive thing about Widow’s Bay‘s sweep of eight wins already (out of 19 Emmy nominations overall) is that it was such a late breaker its final episodes weren’t even eligible. This means the Television Academy branches (all voting except for Outstanding Program categories are up to just individual branches) flipped for the show and clearly watched it just before voting started, making it fresh of mind. And this despite the fact that the fifth and final season of Hacks got a record 24 nominations, far more than ever before, and seemed poised to own the night.

The only head-to-head matchup between the shows last weekend was in Picture Editing, where Hacks prevailed; believe it or not, that is actually a positive sign for the veteran HBO Max comedy. Prior to that victory, Hacks had only won a single crafts category in its history, and that was in 2022 for Contemporary Costume Design. And let’s consider 2024, the year Hacks pulled off a stunning upset and beat the second season of The Bear to claim its only Comedy Series Emmy to date, achieving the feat with only two other wins (for Comedy Writing and Lead Actress Jean Smart) compared to The Bear’s haul of 11 wins that year. Could that scenario repeat against Widow’s Bay?

Widow’s could still pick up a few more wins and wind up in the same boat as The Bear that year. In fact, it likely will set some sort of record for Comedy even if it eventually loses in Comedy Series. If the enthusiasm for this first season is as strong above the line as it was below, then watch out (so far, Betty Gilpin for Guest Comedy Actress is its only above-the-line win, and that could be because the five Hacks actresses nominated against her likely split their votes five ways).

The TV Academy recently has favored first-timers, especially from Apple; think Ted Lasso and The Studio. Throw in FX’s The Bear in its first season and it is clear voters like shiny new toys here, and that seems to be the way it is headed as Widow’s also appears very strong in writing, directing, Lead Actor and Supporting Actress. So why am I not so sure? I could also picture a Hacks triumph with just a handful of statuettes overall, notably Jean Smart, maybe writing. Seven of the eight wins so far for Widow’s Bay are crafts, and the show has no peer when it comes to major production values. But when the entire Academy has a vote, stranger things have happened. Right now, Hacks is coming from behind, even after nominations day gave it that early frontrunner status for a sterling end to a classic show. I think it could have one last hurrah.

THE WINNER: Jean Smart for Hacks (setting several records along with it)

THE WINNER: Stephen Root for Widow’s Bay (unless sentiment for Harrison Ford finally sets in)

THE WINNER: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky for the Hacks finale

I see no other outcome here other than a second-season repeat for industry favorite The Pitt. It was close in terms of numbers on Night 1 and Night 2 of the Emmys last weekend, with chief competition, newcomer Pluribus, winning three to Pitt’s four. But in the end it will be the innovative medical series, even if Pluribus creator Vince Gilligan manages to win for writing and/or directing (the Breaking Bad maestro has never personally won in those categories). He will have to beat both Pitt nominees in writing (they could cancel each other out) and Noah Wyle himself in directing, so it isn’t a slam dunk. Task, which missed out on a Drama Series nomination, could still be a spoiler in both of those categories, but in terms of what was nominated for Drama Series it will be a show even Gilligan told me he expects to win.

Zendaya won for the first two seasons of Euphoria but can she make it a third for the less well-received final season? Certainly the actors branch has shown their love for her, but it may be too long a stretch since her last win in 2022 to pull off the threepeat. I see this coming down to the long overdue Keri Russell in Season 3 of The Diplomat, which appears to be gaining steam (plus she won SAG’s Actor Award this year), and Pluribus’ well-liked Rhea Seehorn who was continually robbed of recognition (even nominations until the end) for Better Call Saul.

Shawn Hatosy won as Dr. Jack Abbot in The Pitt last year in the guest category. Now he has moved up but faces stiff competition from co-stars Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell. Do they all cancel each other out, or does Ball, so memorable as Dr. Frank Langdon, squeak by? If there is a genuine split does Task standout Tom Pelphrey surprise, or does the actors branch return to old favorite here, and the show’s sole nominee, and two-time winner, Billy Crudup in The Morning Show?

Katherine LaNasa won this last year and looms as a front-runner to do it again, but this time she is joined by three co-stars in Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif and Sepideh Moafi — the latter being a genuine threat here to LaNasa repeating. Should they all split (a possibility of course), look for Allison Janney in The Diplomat, now playing a U.S. President, to make Emmy history and join Cloris Leachman and Julia Louis-Dreyfus as an eight-time acting winner in a year where Jean Smart is also favored to join that short list.

I did well in predicting all those early Limited Series wins with writing, directing, supporting actor and supporting actress for DTF St Louis, plus it already also picked up Cinematography and Picture Editing wins. If this were the Oscars that would be the pedigree for Best Picture. How can it lose? Beef, in its second go-round after sweeping this category in 2023, has the name value in this specific contest when all voters make the choice, plus I think this season’s edition was even better. But HBO shows its might again and DTF is down to win.

This category is the biggest puzzlement as it can often throw a curveball into the mix. On the surface I would say Oscar Isaac, so good in Beef, should and will win here, but don’t discount a left-field triumph for Charlie Hunnam in Monster: The Ed Gein Story, a dominant performance if voters watched. The rest of the field are all past Emmy winners in various categories, but Matthew Rhys, who is a certain bet for Comedy Actor, is unlikely to pull off a double with The Beast In Me; Riz Ahmed was a surprise nomination; and Jason Bateman’s dark turn in Black Rabbit came almost a year ago, so will it be remembered enough to prevail even though it shows off this beloved veteran star’s true versatility? (Plus, he has four nominations personally this year, has already lost two, and his most likely victory is as an executive producer of predicted Limited Series winner DTF St Louis.) A win here though is not out of the question for Bateman, possibly representing two outstanding performances for which he was nominated this year (he lost to DTF co-star David Harbour in Supporting Actor last weekend). This category is basically up for grabs, and don’t discount Bateman, but….

Beloved veterans and past multiple Emmy winners Sally Field and Claire Danes are in the mix. Field, at age 79 (how can that be?), would be the oldest to win here, and she truly deserves it getting a new lead role in Remarkably Bright Creatures (which took the TV Movie prize last weekend) and knocking it out of the park. It has been exactly 50 years since her first win in this category for Sybil, but since they combined the flailing TV Movie category with Limited/Miniseries in 1998, the last time the honors went to a star of a single TV movie was in 2012, when Julianne Moore won as Sarah Palin in Game Change. Limited Series stars have the advantage. The great Carey Mulligan is current odds-on favorite for Beef and could very deservedly join co-star Isaac in the winners’ circle; recent winner Sarah Snook is up too. But Emmys, when they have an opportunity, like to anoint newcomers who stand out, and in playing a difficult real-life role of Carolyn Bessette in the widely seen Love Story, Sarah Pidgeon had to overcome internet scorn and gossip even before the cameras rolled and emerged triumphant, the standout still standing.

THE WINNER: Sarah Pidgeon for Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette

Once voters latch on to a show in this category they keep checking it off for years. The Traitors won here in 2024 and 2025, and already has racked up six more wins last weekend. It can’t lose.

The Academy keeps tweaking this category. This year it has gone back to true variety such as Saturday Night Live, mixed with consistent regular winner in the weekly Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, frequent hybrid winner The Daily Show and a couple of traditional network late-night shows in Jimmy Kimmel Live! (which has never won this category) and Late Show With Stephen Colbert (which finally won last year after being unceremoniously canceled by CBS). The latter already swept five early awards last weekend, including beating Oliver and Kimmel in Writing. It seems its final year on CBS, which ended in May, may hold the emotional power and f*ck you to CBS to prevail again.

However, in creating this new grab-bag Variety category to compensate for the dwindling number of entries eligible, the Academy has made the voting different, asking us to simply put yes or no to the question: Does this series deserve an Emmy? It is a very high threshold, with a required 90% to become a winner; there can be multiple winners, though it appears Colbert may be the only show to do that. I assumed he didn’t need my help, and to boost Kimmel and Daily Show, I gave the affirmative “Yes” to both of them. I am hoping for multiple winners here, and the Academy is bracing for it. With Kimmel’s widely publicized troubles with the FCC and his brilliant comeback, wouldn’t it be great, at the very least, if both Colbert and Kimmel passed that 90% threshold and stood onstage together, an Emmy moment for the ages? It could happen. I hope it does.

THE WINNER(S): Late Show With Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel Live!

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