Disney’s live-action take of animated hit Moana is looking at an $85M North American opening when it bows on July 10. This is all according to three-week pre-release tracking this morning.
Dwayne Johnson returns in the flesh to play the demigod he portrayed as a cartoon, Maui. Catherine Laga’aia takes over as Moana, that protag previously played by Auli’i Cravalho in both Moana 1 and Moana 2. Fosse/Verdon director Thomas Kail is helming the live-action Moana.
If some are shocked by the lower forecast now on Moana, note — yes, the tried-and-true excuse that it’s still early in the campaign, but also, you have Toy Story 5 ($140M-$150M+ outlook this weekend) and Illumination/Universal’s Minions & Monsters eyeing at a bare minimum a $95M 5-day opening when it invades on Wednesday, July 1. In addition, that projection on Moana is on par with Uni’s live-action take of DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon which began with $84.6M last year.
Best first choice for Moana in general audiences with women over 25, above Mufasa: The Lion King ($35.4M) and How to Train Your Dragon, but way behind Moana 2 which was an enormous Thanksgiving hit holding the 5-day record start of $225.4M back in 2024 ($139.7M 3-day). The original Moana in 2016 posted a 5-day opening over Thanksgiving of $82M ($56.5M 3-day). Moms and Dads are even on taking their kids under 12 to see Moana, but again way behind versus Moana 2 when that hit tracking and ahead of Mufasa: The Lion King and How to Train Your Dragon. Girls under 12 have the best first choice with Moana, well behind Lilo & Stitch and Moana 2 when they hit tracking, but ahead of Mufasa: The Lion King and How to Train Your Dragon.
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