Well, on the bright side of things, the autumn box office should continue at a great hum this weekend thanks to Amazon MGM Studio’s feature take of Colleen Hoover thriller, Verity, starring Dakota Johnson, Anne Hathaway, and Josh Hartnett. The domestic outlook is $30M+ at 3,510 theaters with the definite potential to over perform given how there’s walk-up business from Hoover-philes. The Michael Showalter directed thriller has a shot at $20M-$25M in 70 offshore territories sans Japan, South Korea Taiwan, Vietnam and CIS in this suite, for a $50M-$55M+ global start. Previews stateside start today on Verity at 2PM.
Meanwhile, light candles and say prayers for Warner Bros/Legendary Entertainment’s Tom Cruise starring, Alejandro Iñárritu directed Digger. Many are bracing for what could be one of Tom Cruise’s lowest wide openings at the box office during the millennium. Warners believes the movie can get to $12M-$15M at 3,300 theaters, others believe it’s lucky to break $10M at the domestic box office. Seventy-three foreign territories except Poland, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand (no China release) are expected to deliver another $15M-$20M abroad at 14,000+ screens, for a $35M WW global start at the high-end for the reported net $125M production (rumors out there is that the movie was much higher between $140M-$150M). Unlike the Dune franchise, Legendary didn’t co-finance this, but they did produce Digger. Previews start at 2PM in North America with tickets on sale in Imax, Dolby Cinema, VistaVision, PLFs, and motion seats.
Digger was shot at Leavesden with UK tax credits. Global marketing spend is approaching $100M. To say that the movie is divisive is an understatement with some critics hailing the brilliance of the polemic movie in its Doctor Strangelove satire while others are simply impatient. Current Rotten Tomatoes critical score is 52% and know that Cruise has had lower ratings (2017’s The Mummy was 15% Rotten with reviewers; 2016’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back was 37% Rotten). Warners in a last minute marketing salvo is leaning into selling the controversy of the film with a final spot, this tweet having clocked 2.2 million views:
Decide for yourself. DIGGER – in theaters and IMAX FRIDAY. Tickets on sale now. https://t.co/Z1IpSpFnXd pic.twitter.com/e5ID4WUxbL
Back in his heyday as a star, Cruise posted low openings at the domestic box office in the single digits (i.e. classic Rain Man opened to $7M in 1988 at 1,248 theaters and powered to $172.8M domestic), but those were very different distribution days when movies opened small and played long. Post 2000, some of Cruise’s lowest opening have included the 2007 drama Lions for Lambs ($6.7M, $35M production cost), 2012’s Rock of Ages ($14.4M, $75M production cost) and Jack Reacher ($15.2M,$60M production cost, but it spawned a Prime series TV franchise) and 2017’s American Made ($16.7M, $60M net production). However, on a seismic bomb level for the leading man, 2017’s The Mummy at $31.6M domestic opening/$172.6M worldwide wasn’t enough to save that $195M production which finaled at $80.2M domestic, $409.2M WW).
What positive things is there to say about Digger at this point? Domestic tracking in first choice climbed from a 2 since landing on tracking to a 7 which is the same as Cruise’s American Made ($16.7M opening, $60M production cost) and higher than Marty Supreme ($17.7M opening). Who wants to see this movie? Best first choice right now is men over 25, which is above American Made and Marty Supreme‘s figures.
Back to Verity. We hear presales are behind It Ends With Us ($50M opening, $148.5M domestic, $351.4M WW), but that’s not a bad thing. That movie was Hoover’s most popular novel, and it opened when Blake Lively was in the mega-ether of Deadpool & Wolverine. Not to mention female audiences were intrigued by the percolating crisis between the actress and her co-star/directorJustin Baldoni (fans were already deconstructing bad blood between them from red carpet photos alone). Hollywood went on a buying spree, snapping up Hoover tomes for the big screen, but two of them, Paramount’s Regretting You ($13.6M opening, $48.8M domestic, $90.4M WW) and Reminders of Him ($17.9M opening, $48.5M domestic, $89.2M WW) were alright in regards with their budgets, not box office sensations. Verity is arguably Hoover’s second most popular novel.
Like for like comps for Verity abroad are above The Drama ($9.4M international opening), lit thriller Where the Crawdads sing ($12M), and Reminders of Him ($10M, but that was in 56 territories). The lit adaptation should do well in Europe, specifically Scandinavia, however, we’re hearing presales are really hot in Brazil, where Verity is above It Ends With Us. In like-for-likes, It Ends With Us had a $45.6M opening.
Meanwhile, don’t count out A24’s Primetime. Many thought this was would be front-loaded but the movie has posted solid weekdays now up to a running total of $23.8M. The Robert Pattinson directed and Lance Oppenheimer movie could hold to better than -60%. Older adults will continue to go to Paramount’s Brad Pitt green beret survival movie, The Heart of the Beast, with a second weekend dip of around -40% Last weekend’s Avengers Endgame: Encore looks to decline around -60%.
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