Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Primetime Tony Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: June 4, 2026): Will Broadway celebrate teen vampires, children’s book authors with sadistic streaks, ballroom dancers in touch with their feline side and a politician who picks the wrong woman to shtup?
Those are some of the questions facing the theater community as it gears up for the 79th Tony Awards. That’s when audiences will find out if “The Lost Boys,” a rock musical based on the 1987 cult horror film; “Giant,” a drama about Roald Dahl’s antisemitism; and radical revivals of “Cats” and “Oedipus” will dominate Broadway’s biggest night.
“The Lost Boys” and the stage adaptation of the Apple TV series “Schmigadoon!” lead the field with 12 nods each, followed by the musical revival of “Ragtime,” with 11 nominations. Then there’s “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman,” which overcame controversy around producer Scott Rudin — who returned to Broadway after being ostracized in the wake of bullying allegations — to become the year’s most nominated play, with nine nods. Will voters declare “Death of a Salesman” the best revival of a play, or will the Rudin backlash prove too intense?
That’s not the only dilemma facing voters as a wide-open awards race hurtles toward its conclusion on June 7, when the Tonys air. Here’s a look at the shows that will have a lot to celebrate, the productions that could score upset victories and the performances that deserve recognition.
Final Tony voting concludes Friday, June 5, at noon ET. The 79th annual Tony Awards will air live coast-to-coast Sunday, June 7, on CBS and stream on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET, with Pink hosting from Radio City Music Hall.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
In what may be the evening’s tightest race, “Two Strangers,” a heartfelt, often hilarious, teeny-tiny West End import, should edge out “The Lost Boys,” a technically audacious big-budget crowd-pleaser. Neither is perfect, but “Two Strangers” comes closer to sticking the landing, capturing the chaos, energy and, yes, romance of the Big Apple.
Will Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Could Win: “The Lost Boys”Should Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”
“Liberation,” an exploration of second-wave feminism that is formally daring and deeply moving should add a Tony to writer Bess Wohl’s trophy case. It’s possible that “Giant,” which won last year’s Olivier Award for best play, will repeat the feat here. But in a just world, “The Balusters,” a ferociously funny look at a neighborhood association riven by petty fights and clashing egos, would pull off a come-from-behind victory. It’s a satire about dysfunctional politics that feels all too topical.
Will Win: “Liberation”Could Win: “Giant”Should Win: “The Balusters”
“Ragtime” with its sprawling look at America at the dawn of a new century, has the epic scale and scope Tony voters like to reward. But “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” is a revelation. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s megamusical about anthropomorphic kitties was hugely popular because of the spectacle, not the ludicrous plot. By restaging the show during the drag balls of the 1980s, “Cats” has morphed into a glorious celebration of downtown culture and queer identity.
Will Win: “Ragtime”Could Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
This “Death of a Salesman” reimagines an overly familiar story so that it becomes less a revival than a rediscovery. Director Joe Mantello’s decision to lean into the surreality to dramatize the central character’s fractured mind makes Arthur Miller’s 77-year-old tragedy seem utterly modern. No other revival took a risk like “Salesman,” and Tony voters will — and should — reward its high-wire act.
Will Win: “Death of a Salesman”Could Win: “Oedipus”Should Win: “Death of a Salesman”
As Coalhouse Walker Jr., a talented piano player whose confidence in the American dream is destroyed, Joshua Henry is a powerhouse. “Ragtime” wouldn’t have had its shattering impact were it not for his wrenching portrayal of a man steamrolled by a ruthless, racist system. It’s not just the best performance in his category; Henry’s may be the greatest one on Broadway this season. He’s a lock.
Will Win: Joshua HenryCould Win: Nicholas ChristopherShould Win: Joshua Henry
In John Lithgow’s hands, Roald Dahl is a brilliant and witty, often sympathetic, ultimately horrifying monster. Each one of Dahl’s glorious turns of phrase is designed to exact maximum carnage; every turned eyebrow betrays his bullying intellect. But even as we laugh with Dahl — and we do — we see the unapologetic antisemite lurking beneath. It’s a career-best performance that Tony voters will likely honor. Nathan Lane as Willy Loman is just as effective at showing his character’s belief that his bad luck can turn on a dime. It’s a shame they can’t share the prize, but given that Lithgow has two Tonys to Lane’s three, it’s time to even the score.
Will Win: John LithgowCould Win: Nathan LaneShould Win: John Lithgow
If “Ragtime” has the sweep-the-board Tonys ceremony that many prognosticators expect, then Caissie Levy, who plays Mother, will be delivering an acceptance speech. But don’t be shocked if Christiani Pitts hears her name called out instead. Still, our pick is Marla Mindelle for her gloriously demented turn as Celine Dion in “Titanique.
Will Win: Caissie LevyCould Win: Christiani PittsShould Win: Marla Mindelle
This prize has been Lesley Manville’s to lose since “Oedipus” opened last fall. The British stage legend made a stunning Broadway debut playing a political spouse gets some pretty upsetting news about her husband. There’s a wrenching monologue that Manville delivers that levelled audiences with its intensity. Give this woman her Tony!
Will Win: Lesley ManvilleCould Win: Susannah FloodShould Win: Lesley Manville
Legendary performer André De Shields, nominated for “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” is a potential victor. After winning for “Hadestown” at 73, a second Tony at 80 would further cement his late-career renaissance. De Shields’ closest competitors are Ben Levi Ross, fresh off his Drama Desk win for “Ragtime,” and 26-year-old breakout Ali Louis Bourzgui from “The Lost Boys,” marking his second originated role on Broadway following 2024’s “The Who’s Tommy,” where he played the titular role.
Will Win: André De Shields Could Win: Ben Levi Ross Should Win: Ali Louis Bourzgui
Of all the acting races, this is the hardest to read, with four viable contenders in the mix. They include theater enthusiasts’ heavily favored Alden Ehrenreich for “Becky Shaw,” the formidable Christopher Abbott for “Death of a Salesman,” and a true dark-horse spoiler in Richard Thomas for “The Balusters,” whose potential victory could serve as a way to honor the production as a whole. Burstein already broke a record with his ninth Tony nod, for “Marjorie Prime,” giving him the all-time mark for most Tony nominations by a male performer (surpassing Jason Robards). In the end, we think Thomas squeaks by.
Will Win: Richard ThomasCould Win: Danny Burstein Should Win: Alden Ehrenreich
This seems to be the one category you can take to the bank. It’s hard to fathom that the third time won’t be the charm for Shoshana Bean for her work in “The Lost Boys,” although it could be argued that Nichelle Lewis could get wrapped up in a full-on sweep of “Ragtime.”
Will Win: Shoshana Bean Could Win: Nichelle Lewis Should Win: Shoshana Bean
June Squibb also broke a record of her own on nomination morning. At 96, she is the oldest acting nominee in Tony history, surpassing Lois Smith, who was 89 when nominated for “The Inheritance” in 2020. After turning 90, she went on to win that season, becoming the oldest winner ever. Coincidentally, Smith originated the title role of “Marjorie Prime” off-Broadway in 2015 before reprising it in the 2017 film. Smith. Can Squibb smash one more record of Smith’s? Might be difficult considering the reviews and acclaim of her fellow nominee Laurie Metcalf from “Death of a Salesman,” who is likely to be part of a big night for the Scott Rudin-produced revival.
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf Could Win: June Squibb Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Will Win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch Could Win: Michael Arden Should Win: Lear deBesseonet
Will Win: Joe Mantello Could Win: Whitney White Should Win: Robert Icke
Will Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Could Win: “Schmigadoon!”Should Win: “Titaníque”
Will Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Could Win: “The Lost Boys”Should Win: “Death of a Salesman”
Will Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Could Win: “The Rocky Horror Show”Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Will Win: “The Lost Boys”Could Win: “Schmigadoon!”Should Win: “Schmigadoon!”
Will Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Could Win: “Ragtime”Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Will Win: “Fallen Angels”Could Win: “August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”Should Win: “Fallen Angels”
Will Win: “The Lost Boys”Could Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Should Win: “Ragtime”
Will Win: “The Fear of 13”Could Win: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”Should Win: “Bug”
Will Win: “The Lost Boys”Could Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Will Win: “Dog Day Afternoon”Could Win: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”Should Win: “Oedipus”
Will Win: “The Lost Boys”Could Win: “Chess”Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Will Win: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”Could Win: “Bug”Should Win: “The Fear of 13”