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Spotify’s stock is down nearly 30% year-over-year, with UBS dropping its price target due to cost pressures despite a generally bullish mood.

Spotify’s stock (SPOT) has been lackluster this year, down nearly 30% year-over-year, despite the broader sentiment remaining bullish as the company pushes to diversify. As a result, UBS softened its price target this week but still says “BUY,” citing cost pressures for the lowered target price. The stock was trading at around $481 on Monday afternoon, a slight increase from that morning but still down more than 30% over the past year.

UBS analyst Batya Levi reports that the company continues to launch diversified products and features to support additional monetization opportunities. The firm expects that Spotify will make progress toward its financial targets and anticipates third-quarter results to be largely in line with management’s outlook.

Further, UBS expects Spotify’s premium revenues to increase by 15.2% on a foreign exchange neutral basis, compared to 16% in the second quarter, while advertising revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 8.6% on a foreign exchange neutral basis as comparisons against last year’s notably lower podcast inventory soften.

To that end, many of the biggest banks and analysts are still saying either “BUY” or “Strong Buy,” while maintaining their price targets.

Notably, the 12-month consensus price target sits between $593 and $617, suggesting a roughly 25% to 30% upside from early October trading levels of ~$472 to $491. That said, forecasts vary widely, with ranges between $400 and over $720.

Recent Analyst Updates (Late Sept – Oct 2026)

Firm Recommendation Price Target Date KeyBanc Overweight / Buy $660 (lowered from $680) Oct 1 Wells Fargo Buy $570 (reiterated) Sep 30 Evercore ISI Outperform $700 (raised from $650) Sep 29 Morgan Stanley Buy $640 (reiterated) Sep 28 Bank of America Buy $685 (maintained) Sep 24

Earlier this year, Apple Music surpassed Spotify’s U.S.-based subscriber number, which could explain some of the price softness—but there are a lot of moving parts at play. Spotify reported a 14% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, driven by a 16% increase in premium revenue following its recent price hikes. That aligns with expectations.

Barclays highlighted that Spotify’s streaming growth closed the gap with major music labels, posting 14.6% growth compared to the average of 8.3% for major music companies. However, even with these developments, the gap remains at its widest in the last six quarters.