FRIDAY PM: If a Nor’easter doesn’t shut down the power in the Northeast, four films are looking at doing over $20M apiece in what is another fantastic sign for moviegoing in a year that’s racing to $10 billion. Currently, there’s no word of theaters closing down with wind and rain descending from New Jersey up to Boston.
Disney/Marvel Studio’s 3-hour Avengers: Endgame: Encore has the upper hand among the new stuff with an estimated $11M today and between $23M-$26M at 3,060 theaters. Pic’s lifetime cume after this weekend on the high end would move to $884.3M. Even though there’s no endgame for Encore in its re-release, there’s no exception for this movie to unseat the Marvel Studios movie over at Sony, the all-time domestic grossing Spider-Man: Brand New Day (which will have a cume around $950M by Sunday).
Second belongs to Sony’s second frame of Resident Evil at 3,684 locations with a 3-day of $22M, -63%, after a $6.5M Friday. Running domestic tally by EOD Sunday should be around $102.1M for the Zach Cregger revamp.
Third is a fight between Brad Pitt and Robert Pattinson, respectively with Paramount’s Heart of the Beast and A24’s Primetime. Heart of the Beast at 3,435 sites is seeing a Friday of $7.5M, 3-day of $20.5M. Primetime is around $8.5M today, with many optimistic that it gets past $20M. There is a chance it could recede to $18M-$19M and that ain’t a bad thing for this $15M net production which didn’t cost as much as Pattinson’s Mickey 17 at net $118M production cost. The Smashing Machine this movie is not ($5.8M opening), which was another A24 hipster and sophisticated adult play a year ago.
Typically the family animated movie is the stronger in this final September slot, but not this year with Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island filing $3.9M today (including previews) and $10.1M 3-day for the weekend, out of its $13M-$15M range. No RT audience score yet.
Right there you have the top five films alone doing between $95M-$98M for this weekend. The best post-Covid weekend for the last frame of September was 2024 with $93M. That’s when Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot opened to $35.7M.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Previews are in with Disney/Marvel Avengers Endgame: Encore grossing $3.8M yesterday, which is ahead of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith‘s $3.4M previews for its re-release last year.
Mind you, for quite some time before Spider-Man: Brand New Day came along, Avengers: Endgame had the domestic previews record of $60M (now No. 2).
A24’s Primetime starring Robert Pattinson grossed a solid $2.7M at 2,859 theaters, $200K shy of the studio’s previews for 2024’s Civil War ($2.9M), which went on to a $25.5M opening. Also that’s way ahead of recent Pattinson previews, i.e. this past spring’s The Drama ($1.7M, $14.3M opening) and last year’s Bong Joon Ho sci-fi feature Mickey 17 ($2.5M, $19M opening).
Paramount’s Heart of the Beast made $2M, and that’s from showtimes last night and Monday Mystery screenings. That figure bests the $1.5M made by Brad Pitt’s 2019 sci-fi drama Ad Astra which went bowed to $19M.
RELATED: ‘Heart Of The Beast’ Review: Brad Pitt And A Soulful German Shepherd Struggle To Survive The Wilderness In An Emotional Journey That Will Have You Sobbing
Wouldn’t that be amazing if we had four movies this weekend doing north of $20M — meaning Avengers, Primetime, Heart of the Beast and Resident Evil? Great news here for Heart of the Beast is that it’s 97% with audiences on Rotten Tomatoes with way more love than Ad Astra (40% Rotten).
Resident Evil should it do over $20M this weekend, which would clear the century mark stateside to become the 19th movie to top $100M this year. The Zach Cregger-directed Sony/Constantin feature ends the week with $80.1M.
RELATED: ‘Resident Evil’ Review: Zach Cregger Brings Style, Humor And A Game Austin Abrams To Make Smart Original Reboot Of Horror Franchise
Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island did $1.48M in previews all-in from showtimes yesterday ($750K at 2,650 sites), Mystery Monday screenings ($342K), and Sunday sneaks ($388K). That’s ahead of post-Covid’s The Bad Guys ($1.1M), which debuted to $23.9M in 2022, and not too far from The Wild Robot‘s $1.95M previews, which translated into a $35.7M opening in 2024. Original animated movies have become increasingly harder to launch. Good news here is that Forgotten Island is 95% fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes, and it’s the only family choice until Warner Bros’ animated The Cat in the Hat arrives on November 6.
EXCLUSIVE: Here’s what’s cool about this weekend.
Without any wide entry opening to north of $30M, it’s going to be a fantastic late-September frame at the box office. It wouldn’t be shocking if the marketplace sees the best late-September weekend since 2018, when all films totaled $106.4M. From a pure box office standpoint — forget about budgets and marketing costs for a minute — we’ve got four wide openings aimed at various demos in Disney/Marvel Studios’ Avengers Endgame: Encore (fanboys), A24’s Primetime (Gen-Z and Robert Pattinson fans), Paramount’s Brad Pitt dog movie Heart of the Beast (flyover states and men/women adults) and Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island (families).
RELATED: ‘Forgotten Island’ Review: H.E.R. And Dave Franco Give Life To Gorgeously Animated And Frenetic Toon
Heading into this weekend, it was believed that No. 1 could be a fight between Avengers Endgame: Encore and the second weekend of Sony/Constantin’s Resident Evil, respectively at $25M-$30M and $21M-$24M.
But there are curveballs: It’s the year of Pattinson in The Drama and beggars-getting-out-of-here memes in The Odyssey, and though A24 is eyeing $12M-$16M for his latest movie Primetime, about To Catch a Predator‘s Chris Hansen and his case gone wrong, the $15M-net production has a shot at a $20M opening in North America at 2,814 theaters.
“It could be a three-way fight for No. 1,” says one distribution source.
RELATED: ‘Primetime’ Review: Robert Pattinson Channels Jerry Maguire And Dracula For Lance Oppenheim’s Dark TV Morality Tale – Venice Film Festival
We’re hearing that previews tonight for the first feature narrative title from documentary filmmaker Lance Oppenheim are chasing Avengers Endgame: Encore‘s $3M+ previews with a figure between $2M-$3M. Previews for the R-rated Primetime began at 4 p.m. Thursday, and Rotten Tomatoes reviews and critics are great at 86% certified fresh and 85%. Encore‘s showtimes began today at 2 p.m. Thursday.
Those previews for Primetime are ahead of Pattinson pics The Drama ($1.7M, $14.3M opening in April) and possibly Mickey 17 ($2.5M, $19M opening last year), in addition to the Gen-Z summer horror surprise Obsession ($2.6M, $17.1M opening). The A24 financed-by-foreign-sales movie is bowing abroad this weekend in France, Germany, Austria, Taiwan, Iceland, India, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Meanwhile, Avengers Endgame: Encore, boosted by four extra minutes of the Russo brothers’ upcoming Avengers: Doomsday, has preview cash that could possibly surpass that of last year’s Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith‘s re-release, which was $3.4M (that turned into a $25.4M opening). We heard presales for Encore were ahead of Revenge of the Sith‘s reissue. The asterisk here is that sometimes these re-releases can be front-loaded, so we’ll see how Encore plays out. The Russo brothers’ Encore is booked in around 3,000 theaters, boosted by Disney/Marvel’s new certification on 1,300 premium large-format screens, Infinity Vision, plus 390 Imax hubs. Encore will share Imax and PLFs with Resident Evil.
RELATED: ‘Avengers Endgame: Encore’ Trailer Clocks 77 Million Views In 24 Hours, Quadrupling Record For A Re-Release Trailer
Overseas outlook for Encore is $25M in what’s bound to be a $50M WW weekend give or take. While James Cameron’s Avatar remains the No. 1 movie of all time at $2.92B worldwide, Avengers: Endgame is No. 2 with $2.799B (and Spider-Man Brand New Day No. 3 with $2.5B). There is a $124M WW box office gap between Avatar and Avengers: Endgame. Disney is in wait-and-see mode on whether Endgame could reclaim the all-time top spot before Doomsday‘s December 18 opening. Unlike Revenge of the Sith‘s one-week play, there’s no endgame for Encore at the fall box office.
Paramount’s Heart of the Beast leaves audiences moved and crying, including Deadline chief critic Pete Hammond. Film reviewers aren’t shrugging it at 89% certified fresh on RT. Tracking outlook is $17M-$20M at 3,400 theaters. Previews began at 2 p.m. Thursdayday for the David Ayer-directed PG-13 movie, and we hear from sources they’re around $1.8M (that includes Monday Mystery screenings). That figure is just north of what Pitt’s fall 2019 sci-fi drama Ad Astra did in previews at $1.5M ($19M opening). The movie cost a net $82M before global marketing with dueling edits by Ayer and Pitt’s (Ayer’s won). Internationally, the film will open this week in 63 markets (or 95% footprint) including Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Expectation abroad is $15M for what could be a $35M WW opening. The hope is that older men and women find the film. Like Primetime, this survival tale about a Special Forces veteran and his combat dog who are stranded in the Alaskan wilderness, sells itself upon viewing.
RELATED: ‘Heart Of The Beast’ Trailer: Brad Pitt Journeys Through The Wilderness With A Canine Companion In Survival Thriller
Forgotten Island from Puss in Boots: Last Wish filmmakers Joel Crawford and Januel P. Mercado is looking at $13M-$15M at 3,500 sites. Typically, late September is home to a family animated movie, i.e. Abominable, Cloudy With a Chance With Meatballs, The Wild Robot, the list goes on. Blurb for Forgotten Island: Two best friends become stranded on the mystical world of Nakali, where their only escape might cost them their shared lifetime of memories. Previews today stateside began at 2PM and are estimated between $800K-$1M, we hear. Pic has a staggered offshore rollout. Last weekend, $1.5M was made in Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. An additional 31 markets this weekend will bring Forgotten Island‘s count to 34 markets with an additional $10M in store.
Resident Evil‘s cume through Wednesday stands at $76.8M.
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No movie’s with another title and extra minutes gross should add to original’s total.
That americans are truly this idiotic, to ran in a movie for 4 scenes. America is truly in its capitalist endgame, highly deserved
Or, just maybe, it’s a movie they enjoyed and they want to experience it on the big screen with an audience again.