Emmy voting is now closed, and not a moment too soon.
Every year, more than 27,000 members of the Television Academy — actors and editors, showrunners and composers, the people who actually make television — sit down with their ballots and decide who walks away with an Emmy. And every year, almost none of them will tell us, on the record, what they really think.
So, like we do with Oscar voters, we reached out to a few of them ourselves.
In the final days of voting for the 78th Emmy Awards, Variety spoke with dozens of Academy members across the organization’s 31 professional peer groups — the specialty divisions that sort the membership by craft, from performers to picture editors — and promised each of them anonymity in exchange for total candor. What we saw was a very small snapshot of where the race could go when awards are handed out across the first two weekends in September.
Every voter was also asked the same four questions off the ballot — their biggest snub, the most overspent FYC campaign, the network or streamer having the best season and the one win that would actually move the business. Their answers close each entry.
In the categories deemed “area awards” — hosted nonfiction and variety series — voters have the opportunity to select multiple nominees by answering a simple question: Does this show deserve an Emmy? Yes or No. Interestingly, not one voter Variety spoke with checked “Yes” for every nominee, and only four of those surveyed selected more than one. That strongly suggests voters aren’t viewing these categories as an opportunity to spread the wealth, but rather as a traditional “may the best show win” competition.
Ballots have been edited for length and, where necessary, to protect identities.
The opinions are their own. They’re contradictory, occasionally indefensible and, at least for the purposes of this article, the only ones that matter.
Notably, and vitally important to point out, 10 ballots are not an official presidential poll. They are barely even a focus group. But what you get is a window into a small, unscientific and anecdotal sample of a voting body of more than 20,000 industry professionals. Nobody should mistake this for a forecast, and the voters themselves would be the first to tell you as well (except for one, anyway).
What these conversations reveal, year after year, is how little of the field any one voter has actually seen. Most watch a fraction of what they’re voting on, then default to what they feel they’re supposed to pick — the title everyone’s talking about. It’s a very human way to fill out a ballot, and it makes Emmy voters a notably more out-of-the-loop bunch than the Oscar crowd I sample every season, who at least tend to show they’ve done their homework.
If you fold in what these 10 told us — and what they suspect their colleagues are quietly doing — the picture that emerges looks an awful lot like the one the pundits have been sketching all along.
“The Pitt” looks poised to take drama in a runaway. Comedy is most definitely “Widow’s Bay” against “Hacks,” though the freshman holds a considerable edge over the departing champ. And in limited series, the expected “Beef” vs. “DTF St. Louis” duel is real — but I was struck by how much affection kept surfacing for “The Beast in Me.” Call it, at the very least, a spoiler worth watching.
The first two nights celebrating the artisans and the Governors Gala will take place on Sept. 5-6. The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards air Sept. 14 on NBC.
Final Emmy predictions will be revealed before the first ceremony date.
Biggest snub: “The Testaments” Most overspent FYC campaign: “The Pitt” Network/streamer having the best season: HBO A win that would actually move the business: “Widow’s Bay”
“I don’t know a single person who watches all the nominees. Who has time? … I’ve loved ‘Hacks’ since the beginning and have voted for it every year it’s on the air.”
Biggest snub: Jamie Bell, “Half Man” Most overspent FYC campaign: Anything Apple Network/streamer having the best season: Apple A win that would actually move the business: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
“The same stuff is nominated every year and it’s hard for new things to break in. I’m all in on ‘Widow’s Bay’ … I did not see ‘Beef’ or ‘DTF St. Louis’ — I’m rooting for Claire Danes!”
Biggest snub: “Game Changer” (Outstanding Game Show) and “Age of Attraction” (casting) Most overspent FYC campaign: “Widow’s Bay” Network/streamer having the best season: Hulu A win that would actually move the business: “SubwayTakes With Kareem Rahma”
“This year shows how this whole industry is now completely fucked!”
Biggest snub: “Task” Most overspent FYC campaign: “Widow’s Bay” and “Hacks” Network/streamer having the best season: The streamers A win that would actually move the business: Any broadcast show
“I loved so much of this year’s television. … Everyone I spoke to about their ballots, many of them look just like mine. I’m not a predicting guru like you, but I think mine is the right ballot to predict.”
Biggest snub: K Callan, “Widow’s Bay” Most overspent FYC campaign: All of them. Network/streamer having the best season: HBO and Netflix A win that would actually move the business: Everyone from “Widow’s Bay”
“I wish there was a better way to do all these award nominations. If you have friends in this industry, you get your name on the list — even if you’ve made a piece of shit.”
Biggest snub: “High Potential” Most overspent FYC campaign: Disney Network/streamer having the best season: Peacock A win that would actually move the business: The actors who self-submitted from “The Pitt”
“I love Jason Bateman in ‘Black Rabbit’ and Nick Offerman in both of his TV shows.”
Biggest snub: Michael Shannon, “Death by Lightning”Most overspent FYC campaign: The talk show hostsNetwork/streamer having the best season: NetflixA win that would actually move the business: Salli Richardson-Whitfield
“It’s a weird year. I liked a lot of the shows and performances nominated, but I feel like we know what’s going to win, and it can make you feel like, ‘What’s the point?’”
Biggest snub: “Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” Most overspent FYC campaign: Apple and Amazon Network/streamer having the best season: HBO and Netflix A win that would actually move the business: “Hacks”
“’Real Housewives’ and ‘The Valley’ are way overdue for love. They’re the most-watched shows anywhere, and the Academy turns up its nose at them.”
Biggest snub: “The Real Housewives of Rhode Island” Most overspent FYC campaign: All of them Network/streamer having the best season: HBO and Apple A win that would actually move the business: “Survivor”