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Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 Countdown for July 4th, 2026 | Billboard News
Hi Gary,
Wow, from Drake to Ariana Grande to, most recently, Taylor Swift, what a year for artists with several Hot 100 No. 1s to their credit adding to their totals. At this point, Ella Langley is the only chart-topping artist of 2026 to “only” have one career No. 1 … but what a chart-topper it is!
Pablo Nelson
Oakland, Calif.
Thanks, Pablo.
The top of the Billboard Hot 100 halfway through 2026 has been almost exclusively the domain of acts who’ve scaled the summit before. Of the 10 new No. 1s since January, nine are by artists who previously led.
Here’s a recap:
- “I Just Might,” Bruno Mars, 3 weeks at No. 1, beginning Jan. 24
- “Aperture,” Harry Styles, 1 week, Feb. 7
- “Choosin’ Texas,” Ella Langley, 11 weeks to date, beginning Feb. 14
- “DTMF,” Bad Bunny, 1 week, Feb. 21
- “Opalite,” Taylor Swift, 1 week, Feb. 28
- “Swim,” BTS, 1 week, April 4
- “Drop Dead,” Olivia Rodrigo, 1 week, May 2
- “Janice STFU,” Drake, 2 weeks, May 30
- “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” Ariana Grande, 1 week, June 13
- “I Knew It, I Knew You,” Taylor Swift, 2 weeks, June 20
Of those acts, only Langley has indeed reigned for the first time. Swift scored her 14th and 15th Hot 100 No. 1s; Drake, his 14th; Bruno Mars and Grande, their milestone 10th apiece; BTS, its seventh; Rodrigo, her fourth; Styles, his third; and Bad Bunny, his second.
Of course, and as you note, Langley has run up the most staying power, with “Choosin’ Texas” in charge for 11 weeks and counting — nearly four times that of the next closest No. 1, Mars’ “I Just Might.”
(Then again, no artists have earned a first Hot 100 No. 1 in 2026 with a song released in 2026, as “Choosin’ Texas” debuted on the chart this past November.)
Over the Hot 100’s history, which dates to August 1958, how many artists typically tally a first No. 1 every year, and is 2026 an outlier for newer acts in their quests to conquer? Let’s dig in.
Looking at just this decade, 2026 marks a stark decrease for first-time Hot 100 leaders:
- 2020: 11 No. 1s (13 acts) of 20 total by artists leading for the first time / a success rate of 55%
- 2021: 7 No. 1s (8 acts) of 17 / 41.2%
- 2022: 5 No. 1s (12 acts) of 12 / 41.7%
- 2023: 8 No. 1s (10 acts) of 17 / 47.1%
- 2024: 6 No. 1s (7 acts) of 15 / 40%
- 2025: 3 No. 1s (3 acts) of 8 / 37.5%
- 2026: 1 No. 1 (1 act) of 10 / 10%
Langley follows last year’s ruling rookies: Tate McRae, Alex Warren and HUNTR/X. In 2024, seven acts topped the Hot 100 for the first time: Rich the Kid, Playboi Carti, Teddy Swims, Metro Boomin, Hozier, Sabrina Carpenter and Shaboozey. Over 2020-23, the list gets too wieldy to name in full; among the whopping 43 acts, they include now-established superstars such as BTS, Rodrigo and Morgan Wallen along with acts who haven’t matched their breakout successes, landing a single leader to date.
Zooming out further at each decade, beginning with the 1960s, over the Hot 100’s entire history, here’s a look at the share of No. 1 hits that include at least one artist leading for the first time:
- 1960s: 66.6%
- ‘70s: 62.7%
- ‘80s: 54.3%
- ‘90s: 57%
- 2000s: 58.9%
- ‘10s: 55.5%
- ‘20s: 41.9%
Thus, in the ‘60s, exactly two-thirds of all Hot 100 No. 1s brought acts their first triumphs. By this decade, the share has shrunk to a little more than four out of 10, with, again, Langley, this year’s only such honoree. (2026 matches 1996 as the only years in which just one act has had a first No. 1 before July, with Bone-Thugs-n-Harmony doing so 30 years ago, thanks to “Tha Crossroads.”)
What could be behind the decline, and 2026’s extreme drop-off? Here are five potential factors.
Shining stars: Among the names at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with new releases this year: BTS, Drake, Mars, Rodrigo and Styles. It’s simply been a banner year so far for big names with typically well-received albums. With so many pop, and country, Latin and R&B/hip-hop, stars in the pipeline, they’re bound to often take trips to No. 1.
Solo stars: Looking at the list of 2026 Hot 100 No. 1s reveals another absence beyond first-time leaders: any featured or co-billed artists. Every year has included a billed collaboration atop the chart through last year going back to … 1990. (In all of 1988 and 1989, a single recording artist was responsible for each No. 1.) Doubling star power, or tripling it, makes for more opportunity to top the Hot 100, as was the case last year with McRae, as featured on Wallen’s “What I Want,” and HUNTR/X’s EJAE, AUDREY NUNA and REI AMI on “Golden.” (In 2022, seven credited acts scored a first No. 1 with a single song: Encanto’s “We Don’t Talk About Bruno.”)
Because charts: The Hot 100’s methodology is naturally conducive to high-profile acts hitting No. 1 — with seven of this year’s 10 leaders having debuted on top — along with release strategies. An anticipated release by a big name may get top placement on streaming services and at radio upon its arrival, while multiple versions may be available for purchase, a practice that now can include a cappella, acoustic, slowed-down, sped-up mixes and more, with physical releases back in play after around two decades of purely digitally released singles. Combined, that buzz and scale can make for a fairly clear path to a chart-topping start.
Choosin’ … Texas? … or …: With streaming having made for perhaps the lowest barrier of entry ever for artists attempting to reach consumers, the number of new releases has swelled to staggering heights. With so much music available, listeners can’t possibly discover it all. Instead, the option to rely on acts whom they know will fit their sound by name — like the nine artists that have notched second or more career Hot 100 No. 1s this year —is much more manageable.
Catalog’s climb: To that point, catalog music continues to take a larger slice of music consumption, with artists’ catalogs now bigger and bigger business (a shift that stretches beyond music). That makes for another hit to newer artists’ hopes to stand out. Prior to the streaming era, new songs essentially competed only with each other; now, any release is up against centuries of compositions. In a 2026 case, Michael Jackson’s early ‘80s classic “Billie Jean” topped the Billboard Global 200 — succeeding Justin Bieber’s dozen-year-old “Beauty and a Beat,” featuring Nicki Minaj, a reflection of nostalgia’s pull as evidenced by the record box office receipts for Michael and Bieber’s inventive best-of set at Coachella.
Well … that all might not be encouraging to up-and-coming artists. But is artist development in danger of becoming a lost cause? Thankfully, numerous signs skew more positively.
This year, while Langley is the only artist to top the Hot 100 for the first time, Olivia Dean has come close, reaching No. 2 with “Man I Need.” Molly Santana, too, as featured on Drake’s “Ran to Atlanta,” also featuring Future. Earlier this decade, the likes of Billie Eilish, Luke Combs and Dua Lipa also peaked a spot shy of their first No. 1s and their careers continue to flourish.
Plus, multiple artists continue to level up, with Zach Bryan, Megan Moroney and Noah Kahan also ruling the Billboard 200 this year. Bryan has already topped the Hot 100 — could the respective rising country and rock talents do the same?
Further, a new artist at No. 1 could always be merely a week away. In August 2023, Oliver Anthony became the first artist ever to lead the Hot 100 with no prior chart history at all when “Rich Men North of Richmond” soared in on top. Riding a viral wave, any song that connects quickly on TikTok and other social platforms can lead to sudden strong consumption.
As for “Choosin’ Texas” commanding the Hot 100 for 11 weeks to this point, it’s promising for ascendant acts that the song boasts by far the longest run at No. 1 this year. Similarly, Warren’s “Ordinary” led for 10 weeks last year, and became the top song of the summer, and HUNTR/X’s “Golden” ruled for eight, as KPop Demon Hunters made movie and musical history. The top of the latest Soundtracks chart also reflects a difference between the past two years: Whereas HUNTR/X highlighted last year, the established Swift sings Toy Story 5’s central song.
Meanwhile, the trend toward emerging acts’ facing more competition in multiple ways than before mirrors updates recently announced regarding the best new artist Grammy. “With Best New Artist, we’ve heard from the music community that the way artists are being developed is changing, and the time it’s taking to find success or recognition can take longer than it once did,” Harvey Mason Jr., CEO of the Recording Academy, reasoned in a Q&A on Grammy.com. (An example from the latest Hot 100: Dominic Fike’s “Babydoll” has spent more than three months in the top 40, following its release in 2018.) “The changes that have been made to this category will allow for a little bit more flexibility and reflect the reality that artist development looks different than it did even a few years ago.”