Netflix is in regrouping mode heading into its second-quarter earnings reveal – a very familiar place for the company.
The streaming giant, which will report financials Thursday afternoon after the close of trading, has already signaled that the quarter is unlikely to be a barnburner. That was the takeaway of many Wall Streeters in April after the company declined to raise its full-year guidance.
Netflix have skidded to an 18-month low, down 40% over the past year and 21% in 2026 to date, as skepticism lingers about the company’s user engagement, competitive set and M&A aspirations.
“There’s a lot riding on Q2 as Netflix faces no shortage of near and longer-term questions – from Q2 engagement trends and potential revisions to 2026 margin guidance to the broader challenge of sustaining growth amid evolving consumer preferences and viewing behavior,” Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon wrote in a note to clients.
Apart from Harlan Coben’s I Will Find You, there weren’t many no-doubt hits during the April-to-June quarter, and some viewership was also siphoned off in June by the World Cup. More disconcerting to investors was a report by Bloomberg that many series are experiencing increasingly steep dropoffs in viewership between their first and second seasons.
The company has taken steps already to shore up overall engagement, adding vertical video, podcasts and live sports to create a more comprehensive programming lineup. It is also reportedly considering more significant moves, like potentially expanding on the live broadcast partnership it formed in France with TF1 or possibly the addition of a free tier or even substantial M&A to bolster its IP library. Given lingering questions about the end of its merger agreement with Warner Bros., as well as recent reports the company is taking a look at acquiring Letterboxd, it is likely that execs will be asked yet again about potential deals.
John Blackledge of TD Cowen acknowledges the fretting over engagement trends as a major theme for investors, but he believes that angst ignores significant upside in the company’s growing ad business. “We expect the burgeoning ad tier to help drive member growth and support margin expansion over time as the biz scales,” he wrote in a note to clients, also pointing out that Netflix was the No. 1 choice of consumers Cowen’s surveyed about living room viewing.
Sean Diffley of Morgan Stanley, in a report headlined “We’ve Seen This Movie Before,” said the company has had a lot of experience with comebacks. “With many asking where shares could bottom, we would look to 2022 as the last major period of growing pains for Netflix that saw subs go negative for the first time in 10 years,” wrote. In the end, however, “We think it all comes back to pricing power, and our survey work suggests they still have the best perceived original content and the strongest breadth & depth, along with viewer intention.”
The rope-a-dope dynamics of past quarters, where the bar is set low and the company overdelivers and the stock jumps, could make a return on Thursday, according to BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich. “Given the recent pullback in shares, we believe investor sentiment remains muted and a beat-and-raise quarter could go a long way in assuaging several of these investor concerns,” she wrote. “Conversely, should fundamentals indicate a further deceleration in trends, that would only amplify these bearish concerns and weigh on the multiple going forward.”
Consensus forecasts among Wall Street analysts are for revenue in the quarter of $12.58 billion and earnings per share of 79 cents. Both metrics are close to the company’s own internal projections.
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