SATURDAY AM WRITETHRU after 12:30am post: Spider-Man: Brand New Day has banked a $19M Friday for what’s shaping up to be a third weekend around $67M, -54%, which takes its running cume to $782.8M. By end of tomorrow, if those figures hold, Brand New Day will rank as the fifth highest grossing domestic movie of all-time behind Force Awakens ($936.6M), Avengers: Endgame ($858.3m), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.8M) and Avatar ($785.2M). The Destin Daniel Cretton directed movie is booked at 4,539 theaters.
Among the best third weekends ever at the domestic B.O, Brand New Day ranks fourth, ahead of Black Panther ($66.3M) and Avengers: Endgame ($63.2M) with the record still held by Force Awakens ($90.2M). By comparison, Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s third weekend was $56M.
It’s the 33rd weekend of the year, and Brand New Day‘s $67M is the most amount of money ever made by a pic on this frame in the No. 1 spot post Covid. The biggest 33rd weekend of the year post pandemic will be this one with all titles grossing $158M, ahead of the same frame in 2024 when all movies amounted to $140.4M per Box Office Mojo (that’s when Alien: Romulus opened to $42M).
At a time when everyone is going back to school (K-12 were 51% off yesterday), the family audience is split this weekend, with some going to Spider-Man, and others going to one of two dinosaur movies: Paramount/Spin Master’s PG-rated Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie, which looks like it’s overperforming at $20M or Warner Bros/Bad Robot’sThe End of Oak Street which believes it has a path to $20M (though some see it under that). The pre-schooler Dino Movie settled for $7.35M on Friday at 3,545 theaters and an A CinemaScore, while The End of Oak Street, was $8M at 3,446 sites after a B CinemaScore (that’s just under the B+ of August Warner PG-13 hit The Meg which debuted to $45.4M). It’s the second solid A for Paw Patrol after 2023’s The Mighty sequel. The 2021 Paw Patrol movie received an A- (puppies can’t always be perfect). A good 63% definite recommend for Dino Movie in Rentrak/Screen Engine PostTrak exits.
Paw Patrol: Dino Movie is more family friendly than End of Oak Street (hello, it’s about a family and they’re chased by dinosaurs, just like in Jurassic World), pulling in 50% parents, 36% kids under 12 and 14% general audiences. Per PostTrak, Oak Street‘s inhabitants were 10% kids under 12 with 17% family adult.
Oak Street was tracking heavy with women because of the Anne Hathaway factor, but women over 25 were the second biggest to attend at 28% after men over 25 at 45%, followed by men under 25 at 14% and women under 25 at 13%. A meh 51% definite recommend overall for Oak Street.
Paw Patrol Dino Movie has no PLFs, while Oak Street has a mix of Imax and PLFs accounting for close to 15% of the weekend.
For Dino Movie, the highest grossing theater is the Cinemark in North Canton, Ohio with just over $15K. Oak Street‘s biggest house is the AMC in Tustin, CA with just over $17k.
Second, still powered by Imax, goes to Universal’s fifth weekend of The Odyssey with $23M, an amazing -27% hold, after a $6.5M Friday at 3,217 locations. Running cume by EOD Sunday is over a half billion stateside or $504.4M.
Fifth is also a toss-up between Focus Features’ release of West End capture musical, Six: The Musical Live at 1,462 theaters with a 3-day of $3M off a Friday of $950K, and Angel Studios’ Reagan vs. Gorbachev movie The Brink of War which is looking like $2.75M after a $1.2M Friday and a solid A CinemaScore.
The date is over for Uni’s second weekend of One Night Only at 3,012 theaters with a second weekend of $2.1M, -61%, and a running cume of $10.1M. Friday was $640K.
FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros/Bad Robot’s PG-13 The End of Oak Street came in at $2.5M for Thursday night U.S. previews. The running global tally is $6.5M with key openings in Italy and France. Global outlook is still $38M WW-$48M WW with the foreign haul likely outweighing domestic. Again, that U.S. preview take is around what Rampage did pre-Covid and under what August family pic Blue Beetle did. End of Oak Street‘s preview cash is also higher than original PG-13 sci-fi movie The Creator ($1.6M) which opened to $14M. Previews are also on par with another original sci-fi movie, though R-rated, Mickey 17 which counted $2.5M and opened to $19M.
Paramount and Spin Master’s Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie had previews of $1.9M stateside at 2,800 theaters. The pic bowed in 30 territories last weekend including France, UK and Germany with a running cume that’s now at $35.4M. The domestic outlook is mid-to-high teens. The previous installment, 2023’s Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie didn’t have Thursday night previews, but posted a first Friday of $6.8M and 3-day of $22.7M.
Sony/Marvel Studio’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day ends its second week with $205.7M, with a running domestic cume of $715.8M. That second week is higher than Avengers: Endgame ($186.5M) but under the second week of Star Wars: Force Awakens ($261.1M).
1.) Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony) 4,487 theaters, Wk $205.7M (-60%), Total $715.8M/Wk 2
2.) The Odyssey (Uni) 3,603 theaters, Wk $51.7M (-39%), total $481.4M/Wk 4
3.) One Night Only (Uni) 3,012 theaters, Wk $7.8M/Wk 1
4. Toy Story 5 (Dis) 2,660 theaters, Wk $6.7M (-39%), Total $473.1M/Wk 8
5. Minions & Monsters (Uni) 2,451 theaters, Wk $5.77M (-43%) , total $178.6M/Wk 6
THURSDAY PM: This weekend will belong to Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, but the bright new shiny event title hopeful is Warner Bros/Bad Robot’s The End of Oak Street, which in U.S. previews Thursday night is estimated to do around $2 million-plus after showtimes that began at 1 p.m. at 3,200 sites.
Note that it’s still early with that forecast, and this PG-13 feature is leaning family given how women are the most notable on tracking, not just with mothers but also with Anne Hathaway fans. Ewan McGregor also stars. Some PG-13 comps right now include pre-Covid Rampage, which did $2.4M in 2018, and post-Covid Blue Beetle, which did $3.3M in previews and opened in mid-August 2023 to $25M.
Rentrak reports that only 51% of K-12 schools are off as kids head back to school. On the brighter side for the motion picture industry, 95% colleges remain off.
It Follows filmmaker David Robert Mitchell directed, wrote and produced Oak Street, about a neighborhood that suddenly finds itself next door to a prehistoric jungle with dinosaurs who become worse intruders than the neighbor’s dog. The movie will share Imax with Universal’s The Odyssey and PLFs with Spider-Man: Brand New Day for a domestic outlook that’s between $18M-$23M and a foreign estimate between $20M-$25M in 74 territories. The End of Oak Street will pave a way to France, Germany, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, UK, China and Japan this weekend at 24,000 screens. We’ve heard a varying range for the production cost from net $80M to $92M (there’s plenty of VFX in the movie). Rotten Tomatoes critics are at 85% certified fresh.
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Also opening wide this weekend is Paramount and Spin Master’s PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie at 3,545 theaters and Angel Studios’ The Brink of War at 2,083 in North America. As we told you, Brand New Day is expecting to do between $57M-$72M in its third weekend stateside.
Tonight’s Thursday preview estimate comes from sources.
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So how close does it like we’re getting to the 140 number? If everything holds it seems like we’d be within 5-mill but slightly under. That’s just adding numbers in my head though because I’m on my phone and only have one hand.
I thought this movie was great, and my 12 year old thought this was the best movie ever, he literally didn’t stop talking about it the whole ride home. It had a level of brutality that makes these modern Jurassic movies look childish by comparison.
Kids are buying tickets to Oak Street and sneaking into Paw Patrol
disaster might not break $100 million ww by end of run
I think BND is under 60m this weekend with that Thursday number. Maybe it’s weekday numbers were hurt with schools starting up. Might have a bigger Friday jump. A lot of demand was burned off over the first two weeks.
BND is not dropping that much, that projection is by Sony. Studios always lowball their films weekends. I think it’s going to start stabilizing this weekend. I’m thinking more like $65M-$75M this weekend. We’ll see though.
Sure, that’s what several people thought last week and they were wrong. But we’ll see.
Yeah that’s true and I was admittedly one of those people who we’re a little high on BND’s weekend projections last week lol. But this weekend it’s looking like i might be right this time. We’ll soon know for sure.
I’m just going to point out that Endgame Day 14 was $7m (down 65% w/w) and that movie pulled in $63m on the third weekend.
No only day 14, but every week day this week was higher and had better holds that Endgame.
Big difference between summer movies and movies released when schools are still in.
Endgame didn’t have the benefit of being released during the summer when schools were closed; that being said, $65M seems like a lowball.